We have been in consolidation for more than 1 year. Last year, we had purge of the lows of the consolidation. Now we are trading about the consolidaiton. The price is near a monthly liquidity zone. We will be watching closely if price gets rejected here. This can take 2-3 weeks. We need to be patient. If we have rejections on the daily and weekly timeframe, then we can take early entry shorts with tight stops. However if you want to quick moves down, then we wait for price to close under 101. We can then take shorts on lower timeframe expecting price to go to the lower end of the consolidation. Although we have our bias as neutral, we will be looking for shorts if the price gets rejected. However currently the market structure is bullish. So we are on the sidelines.

When will we change our bias. IF price closes above the monthly zone (Blue zone above the current consolidation) then price becomes really bullish. We have been long term bulls on the dollar. But we have bearish bias because the Trump administration wants a lower dollar. This is why we are looking for shorts.

Another reason for the bearish bias is the divergence between DXY and 10 year yield. this will be resolved soon. Either the DXY falls or the yields will rise.

These are our own views and not investment advice.